The following article presents a different perspective on the ongoing political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It was written by Montenegrin-Bosnian writer and journalist Andrej Nikolaidis and published on the Istraga.ba portal. Nikolaidis is known for his anti-war activism and advocacy for human rights.
———————————————————-The Future of Bosnia
Have you ever considered the possibility that Bosnia and Herzegovina will remain an internationally recognized state, yet functionally cease to operate as one? That its institutions will continue to exist, but key national bodies like SIPA, the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Prosecutor’s Office will effectively become inoperative in certain parts of the country?
Imagine a scenario in which the laws of Bosnia and Herzegovina do not apply throughout its entire territory and the state does not have a monopoly on the use of force within its own borders. In this case, Milorad Dodik would have effectively demonstrated that Bosnia and Herzegovina is a so-called “failed state” whose existence has become meaningless.
But what if the crisis initiated by Dodik is never actually resolved? The Future of Bosnia
Perhaps there is no real crisis at all. If you shift your perspective slightly, you might see that everything is simply a matter of perception. According to liberal thought, everything depends on perspective. There is no objective reality—only subjective viewpoints. And if we adopt this principle, the opinion of a fool is worth as much as the opinion of a genius.
From one perspective, Dodik has already completed the dismantling of Bosnia. The Future of Bosnia
If the laws of Bosnia and Herzegovina do not apply to its entire territory and the state lacks a monopoly on force, then isn’t Bosnia-Herzegovina already effectively divided? The only thing left for Dodik to do is wait for the right moment, deploy armed forces along the entity border, and seek international recognition from Serbia, Russia, Belarus, and other allies.
But there is also another perspective. According to this view, Dodik has not declared secession, peace in Bosnia remains intact, and the country continues to exist. The international community supports Bosnia and Herzegovina’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and strongly condemns Dodik’s actions as unacceptable.
In the coming days, you will hear this narrative from “progressive intellectuals”: “The country has not collapsed, and that is what matters.” They will argue that the focus should be on the so-called European path, and that all of Bosnia-Herzegovina’s internal issues will be resolved upon joining the EU. They will suggest that we should not fall for Dodik’s provocations, as everything will become irrelevant once we become part of the larger European family.
But here’s the real question: what if Dodik does everything he planned, while Sarajevo does nothing? Does life simply go on?
Bosnia and Herzegovina will remain an independent, sovereign, and indivisible state—at least on paper—but it will lack sovereignty over its entire territory. The country will, in effect, be divided much like Germany was after World War II.
Republika Srpska will not be an internationally recognized state, yet it will function as one. Meanwhile, Bosnia and Herzegovina will maintain state institutions, its officials will receive their salaries, and meetings with international partners will continue, all while advocating for the preservation of peace.
SIPA will still exist, and perhaps Ćulum will still lead it—but it will not operate in Republika Srpska. The national courts and prosecutor’s office will remain, but whatever they rule or enforce will be ignored in half the country.
In the end, the picture is quite clear: Dodik has completed his mission, and the only thing left for us is to accept this as the new reality.
Have you ever considered this possibility? The Future of Bosnia
