The Belt and Road Initiative
Although we, as the public in Turkey, have not yet fully recognized our region’s geostrategic importance, every incident in our region strengthens Turkey’s position and highlights its increasing significance.
While the Ukraine-Russia war, which emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, continues with full force, the efforts of the Houthis in Yemen to take control of the Suez Canal in response to Israel’s occupation of Gaza have significantly impacted global trade. The growing difficulties in the supply of raw materials and consumer goods from the Far East, which has become an indispensable source for Europe’s industrial production and consumer needs, have strengthened the importance of seeking alternative transportation routes, particularly the transportation corridors that include Turkey.
Due to the high-security risks currently present in the Suez Canal, ships carrying raw materials and consumer goods from the Far East are forced to navigate around the Cape of Good Hope and the Horn of Africa, extending the transportation process by at least one month and inevitably increasing transportation costs and the cost of raw materials and consumer goods for Europe by around 15-25%. Most recently, the resurgence of the Ukraine-Russia war in the first week of August has once again heightened activity in European markets. Although the “Belt and Road” project has not found sufficient traction on the Turkish public agenda, it has once again become a topic of discussion in Europe concerning their own supply security.
Especially in Central Asian countries, particularly Kazakhstan, which has historical ties with Germany and still hosts 1.5 million citizens of German origin, the countries along the “Belt and Road” corridor have gained new importance due to the war in Ukraine. These countries, which have gained a new economic momentum, have started to hold different value in the eyes of Europe, and a new process has been initiated for Europe to take advantage of the “Middle Corridor” from these Asian countries with road, rail, and sea networks.
In the proposed design, the agenda includes the transport of containers by train to the Kuryk port in Kazakhstan, crossing the Caspian Sea by ferry to the Alat port in Azerbaijan. A 19-hectare area at the Aktau port is being designed as a container hub, and the completion of new infrastructure works at the ongoing port is expected to maximize efficiency.
Europe considers Kazakhstan, which it defines as the economic powerhouse of Central Asia and expects to facilitate trade between China and Europe, as a significant player. The “Middle Corridor,” which includes road, rail, and sea networks, is considered a key connection point. With the completion of development and renovation works at smaller ports with smaller capacities, alongside the main port of Aktau on the eastern shores of the Caspian Sea, it is predicted that commercial ship traffic on the Caspian could increase at least twofold compared to today, keeping future logistics planning on the agenda.
Due to Azerbaijan’s unique role in this targeted design, the West is expected to quietly allow Azerbaijan to complete its infrastructure investments along the Caspian, setting aside previously encountered radical stances on the Azerbaijan-Armenia issue. With the renewal of the infrastructure at the Alat port and the addition of new facilities, Azerbaijan is also positioned as a significant logistical center for Western supply hubs. The Alat port, which currently sits at the crossroads of various rail and road routes, is expected to handle approximately twenty million tons of cargo annually, raising expectations. Containers from this port are anticipated to reach Georgia and then transit through the Black Sea to Romania or Bulgaria, or alternatively, via the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway to Europe through Turkey.
The “Middle Corridor,” which includes Turkey and has been ignored by Europe until now for various reasons, has regained attention in the West since the Russian army’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Usage of this corridor, which stood at 870,000 tons in 2021, has reached 1.7 million tons today. What makes the Middle Corridor attractive is that it is 2,000 kilometers shorter than its northern alternatives and offers an advantageous travel time. Western shippers state that the Middle Corridor journey can take between 18-23 days, compared to 25-28 days via Russia and 22-37 days along the southern Black Sea route. This situation inevitably brings Turkey to the forefront.
Geographer Frédéric Lasserre, in a study published in March 2023 by the Institute for International and Strategic Relations, stated that “exporters need to mitigate the risks and uncertainties associated with sanctions and the deterioration of relations with Moscow” and that “since the Russian offensive, the northern axes have completely lost their appeal.” He also emphasized that “the banning of Russian shipping companies operating within the European Union and the exclusion of most Russian banks from the global financial system has forced a significant portion of goods to be redirected to the Middle Corridor.”
The World Bank, in a report published in February, noted that “the limitations of the Middle Corridor are rapidly emerging” and pointed out that trade has slowed in the first eight months of 2023 due to infrastructure and logistics deficiencies, but the continued modernization efforts are expected to bring trade on this corridor to 4 million tons by the end of 2024, with usage expected to exceed 10 million tons by 2030.
While the standard differences in the railway network on the Middle Corridor have not yet been fully resolved, which partially hampers the process, efforts by the relevant countries to address the differences in track length on the railways are being emphasized.
Geographer Frédéric Lasserre also expressed concerns about the limited capacity on the Georgian side of the Black Sea, noting that the Poti and Batumi ports are not deep enough for extensive use, and as a result, the Georgian government decided to develop the deep-water port of Anaklia on the Black Sea, with the project entrusted to the Chinese. However, uncertainties in Georgia’s port operations have not yet been fully resolved, raising concerns. This situation makes the alternative route through Georgia to Europe via the Black Sea and Romania-Bulgaria more difficult, once again bringing Turkey to the forefront for transportation.
The assessments suggest that the Middle Corridor is reshaping traditional geopolitical balances, with special emphasis on Turkey’s efforts to gain strategic depth in Turkic-speaking Central Asia. In other words, Turkey is considered the “leading actor” for the viability of the project.
The assessments also highlight China’s dominant presence globally and its significant efforts in developing the 6,000-kilometer-long road, with Beijing investing vast amounts through the Belt and Road Initiative and continuing to show interest, particularly in its close Kazakh neighbor. The Kazakh government has pledged to allocate $35 billion (32.44 billion euros) over 15 years to develop highways and to build 1,300 kilometers of new railways by 2026, emphasizing Kazakhstan’s importance as the only Central Asian state bordering both Russia and China.
Moreover, it is noted that at the beginning of 2024, the European Commission and its financial partners decided to allocate 10 billion euros to develop transportation and logistics in the region. In Astana, Kazakhstan’s capital, 25 companies from eleven different countries are working on the topic, with the efforts coordinated through the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route Association, established in 2013 and formalized in 2017.
As can be understood from the statements and comments mentioned above, the unexpected events in our region and Israel’s unjust, borderless occupation of Gaza have made Turkey an inevitable position for ensuring the continuity of supply in Europe. In this context, the strategic importance of the Organization of Turkic States, established through the initiatives of our President, naturally emerges, along with the additional contribution and benefit it will provide to regional peace and the region’s and Europe’s economy.
Under the leadership of our President, the “New Century Vision” put forth in the new century of our Republic, the “Entrepreneurial and Humanitarian Foreign Policy,” and the new “Regional, Constructive, and System-Transforming Approach” meticulously pursued by our Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan, emphasize that the international corridor projects carefully considered within this framework are not only crucial for the countries within the Organization of Turkic States but also play a special role in the continuity of supply chains in Europe and other Central Asian countries, as well as regional peace and stability. While the West may not fully define it, it senses the importance of Turkey’s “New Vision” approach. If our public also embraces this approach, the existing major projects may have the opportunity to materialize much sooner than expected.
Ambassador Ömer Faruk DOĞAN’s original text in Turkish language is here: https://www.tuicakademi.org/bir-kusak-bir-yol-tedarik-zinciri-ve-turkiye/
This is the translation made by the TUIC Academy staff.
